Lighting is one of the bigger expenses for modern sports venues, which can cover anything from a recreational baseball field all the way up through the largest of professional football stadiums.

According to Sports Light Supply, a modern LED lighting system for recreational soccer and baseball fields can run from $20,000 to $50,000. The lighting for a modern high school football stadium meanwhile may boost that cost up to $100,000 to $300,000. And then the kind of lighting systems you find in modern professional stadiums can run anywhere from $250,000 to $1 million.

Why such a range? Simply, the size of the venue that needs to be lit with the lighting requirements, which in the case of professional sports stadiums means lighting sufficient to support the televised broadcast of games. Traditionally, that means huge banks of powerful lights mounted on dedicated structures projecting high above the grandstands surrounding the field they are lighting.

But what if instead of all that dedicated structure, you could simply mount powerful lights on drones and fly them above the field where they could light up the action like the sun?

That's the thinking behind Freefly Systems' Flying Sun concept featured in the following 45-second video. Check it out:

As featured in the video, the initial application would be to provide overhead lighting for nighttime roadwork, construction projects, and emergency response applications. But if it proves effective for these uses, drone-based lighting systems for sports venues won't be far behind.

At this writing, Freefly is selling its "Flying Sun" drones for anywhere from $50,000 to $60,000 each.

That represents new product pricing with the potential to fall significantly if the demand for the innovation results in their being produced at higher volumes. They're just being rolled out commercially this month, so whether drone-based outdoor lighting systems becomes an established product category is now up to the marketplace.

The new home affordability crisis continued in April 2025 with a home affordability factor of 38.0%. The monthly mortgage payment for the median new home sold in the United States would consume more than 36% of the pre-tax income of a household earning the median household income, putting it in the very high danger zone for affordability. The affordability factor has been in this zone for the last 37 months.

The very high danger zone starts at 36%, which represents the upper threshold of affordability that lenders have historically used to determine whether they will loan money to a household that has no other debt. For households that do carry other debt, lenders prefer their monthly mortgage payments consume no more than 28% of their pre-tax household income. Borrowers have more financial resilience to deal with unexpected expenses when their mortgage payments fall below these affordability thresholds.

April 2025's affordability data remains within two percent of the upper threshold of affordability, which is close to being the most "affordable" a new home has been during the past three years. The latest update of our chart tracks the changing relative affordability of the typical new home sold in the U.S. is for the typical American household with respect to the mortgage lending industry's key affordability thresholds from January 2000 through April 2025.

The affordability factor of 38.0% is based on April 2025's initial median new home sale price of $407,200, an estimated median household income of $89,273, and an average 30-year conventional mortgage interest rate of 6.73%. Both the median new home sale price and the monthly mortgage rate ticked up slightly from March 2025's levels.

Looking ahead to May 2025, the interest rate for the average 30-year conventional fixed rate mortgage ticked up to 6.82%, which represents a headwind for new home affordability. Only a surge in household income or a decline in the median new home sale price would be able to counteract this headwind to improve new home affordability.

About the New Home Affordability Crisis

The affordability crisis for new homes has its origin in the high inflation that was unleashed by the Biden-Harris administration's policies in March 2021. Although it rose slowly at first, the cost of monthly mortgage payment began to skyrocket after December 2021. As a percentage of median household income, the monthly mortgage payment for a new home climbed above the key 36% threshold of relative affordability in April 2022, remaining above it in every month since.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 May 2025. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 May 2025. 

Freddie Mac. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971. [Online Database]. Accessed 1 June 2025. Note: Starting from December 2022, the estimated monthly mortgage rate is taken as the average of weekly 30-year conventional mortgage rates recorded during the calendar month.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a forest service fire danger gage. The gage is for home affordability and the high danger limit is 36%. The gage is pointing to 38% in the high danger zone."

There was bad news for Wall Street's bulls for dividends last month.

May 2025 saw negative developments for dividend paying stocks in the U.S. stock market. Measured year-over-year, the number of firms acting to cut their dividends rose and the number of firms announcing dividend increases fell.

Overall, the single number that summarizes the month's dividend changes is -52. This figure represents the net amount by which a reduced number of companies announcing favorable actions like dividend increases or paying extra (or special) dividend payments to their shareholders added to the reduction in the number of firms that either cut or suspended their dividends when compared against their levels in May 2024.

All the month's favorable and unfavorable dividend actions are listed in the following table, which shows how much they changed since May 2024 (year-over-year) and since April 2025 (month-over-month).

The following chart tracks the monthly counts of dividend increases and decreases from January 2004 through May 2025:

The good news is the number of dividend reducing firms remains well below the threshold that indicates recessionary conditions are present within the U.S. economy.

But the more-than-two-years-old downward trend for dividend increases points to a different kind of continuing stress in the market.

References

Standard and Poor. S&P Market Attributes Web File. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 2 June 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull reading a newspaper with the headline 'Dividend Cuts Up, Dividend Rises Down'".

Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in April 2025 is $82,920. This figure is $245 (0.3%) higher than the firm's initial estimate of median household income of $82,675 in March 2025.

Motio Research develops its estimates from income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey. This survey is conducted during the week containing the 12th day of the month following the month in which its data applies. The firm then adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for April 2025 is 116.6.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through April 2025:

The firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index last peaked in September 2024 and has been in a slowly falling trend in the months since.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement Motio Research's survey-based monthly estimates, which we derive from aggregate income data produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Our initial estimate of median household income in April 2025 based upon our alternate methodology is $83,273, which is $302 (or 0.4%) higher than our initial March 2025 estimate of $82,971. Our median household income estimate is $353 (0.4%) higher than Motio Research's April 2025 estimate.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through April 2025. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant April 2025 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

Political Calculations' monthly median household income estimates are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly aggregate wage and salary estimates for the U.S. population. For April 2025, the BEA's data was revised upward from what it previously reported for October 2024 (+0.25%), November 2024 (+0.37%), December 2024 (+0.50%), January 2025 (+0.49%), February 2025 (+0.52%), and March 2025 (+0.54%).

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 May 2025. Accessed: 30 May 2025.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 30 May 2025. Accessed: 30 May 2025.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 13 May 2025. Accessed: 13 May 2025.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) fell 0.8% to close the trading week ending on Friday, 30 May 2025 at 5,911.69.

Despite that anticlimactic decline, May 2025 was the best month for the index since November 2023.

The index gained 342.63 points, or 6.2%, in the month since markets closed on 30 April 2025. Much of the strength behind the gain in stock prices came on the basis of two developments. First, the U.S. and China struck a deal to slash tariffs for 90 days.

Second, and perhaps more significantly, inflation was far lower than expected throughout the month, contradicting the predictions of Federal Reserve officials who have staked their interest rate policy on a hypothesis that tariffs would cause inflation to spike. The difference between hypothesis and reality may force Fed officials to reevaluate their course of action.

Overall, we find the trajectory of the S&P 500 is now consistent with investors focusing their forward-looking attention on 2025-Q4 as it has now moved beyond the end of the redzone forecast range on the alternative future chart. The latest update to the chart suggests the market may have experienced a new Lévy flight event in the past week, with investors shifting their attention from 2025-Q2 to the more distant future quarter of 2025-Q4. We think the change is being prompted by the changing likelihood of interest rate cuts later in the year based on the absence of the Fed's predicted increase in inflation.

Though we're favoring the Lévy flight explanation for the past week's action, we haven't fully ruled out the potential for another market regime adjustment like those that have become remarkably frequent in recent months. For now however, we think the past week's change in stock prices is more consistent with a run-of-the-mill Lévy flight event.

Although it was a holiday-shortened trading week, there was quite a lot of market-moving news crammed into it. Here are the week's market-moving headlines.

Tuesday, 27 May 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump delays 50% tariffs on EU to July 9
• Oil steady ahead of OPEC+ meeting as trade war concerns ease
• Swiss monthly gold imports from the U.S. hit highest since at least 2012
• Fed minions ready to sit and wait on next rate cut, analysts claim they are 'firefighting':
• Fed's Kashkari calls for steady rates, awaits clarity on tariff impact
• Trump's tariff blitz prompts 'firefighting' response from Fed researchers
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Chinese savers decry falling deposit rates but still won't spend more
• China auto shares sink after BYD offers trade-in incentives
• Exclusive: China regulator summons automakers to discuss 'zero-mileage' used car sales
• China mulling new economic policy tools, Premier Li says
• Stimulus helps drive China's industrial profits as trade risks loom large
• China shifts from developing world's banker to debt collector, says Lowy Institute
• BOJ minions hosting central bank conference on sticky inflation and failing economic growth:
• Global central banks talk harsh new economic realities in Tokyo
• BOJ's Ueda calls for vigilance over food inflation risks
• Japan's super-long bond yields plunge on issuance cut speculation
• Japan auction of 40-year debt in focus for signs of sovereign fiscal stress
• Exclusive: Japan to consider trimming super-long bond issuance, sources say
• Stocks Jump As Japan Panics About Soaring Bond Yields
• ECB minions want to keep cutting Eurozone interest rates, say the Euro's time has arrived:
• ECB's Villeroy: normalisation of interest rates in euro zone probably not complete
• Euro could become the dollar's alternative, Lagarde says
• Nasdaq jumps 2%, S&P, and Dow also rise as EU tariff extension keeps mood upbeat

Wednesday, 28 May 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil gains on supply concerns, investors await July OPEC+ output decision
• US banks tiptoe toward crypto, awaiting more green lights from regulators
• Most US households say finances all right even as inflation still bites, Fed survey shows
• Fed minions "grappling with uncertainty", claim they'll do something if inflation deviates from their target:
• Fed saw inflation, jobless, stability risks at May meeting, minutes show
• Fed's Williams calls for strong response if inflation deviates from target
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China deflation fears grow among economists after trade truce
• Chief ECB minion claims they won't change jobs before term ends despite negotiations to change jobs sooner:
• ECB's Lagarde determined to complete her term, spokesperson says
• Lagarde discussed leaving ECB early to head WEF, says Schwab
• Eurozone carmakers negotiating with US over tariffs:
• German carmakers in talks with US over possible tariff deal, sources say
• Wall Street ends lower ahead of Nvidia's quarterly results
• Indexes end down after chip designers ease late; Nvidia jumps after the bell
• Nvidia pops as Q1 results, guidance top expectations, despite China controls
• NVDA in charts: Data Center revenue rises to $39.1B

Thursday, 29 May 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trade court strikes down Trump's April tariffs
• Four ways Trump can re-impose tariffs struck down by trade court
• Trump's tax and spending bill would raise some tariffs as well
• Trump's tariffs to remain in effect after appeals court grants stay
• U.S. Q1 GDP decline pared to -0.2% in second estimate
• US pending home sales fall sharply in April
• Oil prices fall as investors assess US court ruling on Trump tariffs
• Fed minions told they're making mistake by choosing to not cut rates sooner:
• Trump tells Powell Fed is making a 'mistake' by not cutting interest rates
• US labor market showing cracks; corporate profits post largest drop since 2020
• Fed's Kugler says monitoring markets amid big policy shifts
• Fed's Goolsbee: US trade court ruling may extend tariff uncertainty
• Fed's Goolsbee: if tariffs are avoided, policy rate can come down
• BOJ minions holdings of long-term debt fall after Japan's government stop issuing so much of it after market rejection:
• BOJ long-term government bond holdings fall for first time since 2008
• ECB minion suddenly focused on different problem:
• ECB governing council member convicted of bribery
• Wall Street ekes out gain, bonds rally after weak GDP data

Friday, 30 May 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US consumers pulling back spending; inflation slowing for now
• VIEW US inflation tepid in April, consumer spending slows
• US goods trade deficit narrows sharply in April as imports plunge
• Trump's tariffs to remain in effect after appeals court grants stay
• Trump says China has 'totally violated' Geneva deal with US on tariffs, minerals
• Trump wants to see bigger tax cuts in the budget bill
• Tax bill contains 'sledgehammer' for Trump to retaliate against foreign digital taxes
• Oil price outlook weakens on OPEC+ hikes, lingering trade concerns
• Fed minions say they're worried about everything:
• Fed's Logan says it 'could take quite some time' to see a shift in balance of risks
• Fed's Daly says inflation her main focus right now
• Fed's Kugler says monitoring markets amid big policy shifts
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's May manufacturing activity likely contracted for second straight month
• BOJ minions get inflation data they want to hike Japan's interest rates:
• Core inflation in Japan capital hits 2-year high, keeps rate hike chance alive
• S&P 500 ends near flat but posts biggest monthly pct gain since November 2023
• Wall Street takes home massive May gains for best monthly climb since Nov 2023

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool still projects the Fed will avoid cutting the Federal Funds Rate until the conclusion of its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, at which time, it will cut rates by a quarter percent to a target range of 4.00-4.25%. After that, the FedWatch Tool forecasts the Fed will reduce U.S. interest rates by another quarter point on 10 December (2025-Q4), but curiously, may act to cut rates by a quarter point a third time just six weeks later on 28 January (2026-Q1).

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 spiked upward to +3.3%, up from the +2.4% that it previously projected.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is riding a surfboard and is made from plasticene."